‘Ludlows’ Historic Town Walls Under Threat from Climate Change’. Or Are They?

BBC Radio 4 ran a feature on the Today Programme yesterday drawing attention to the collapsing walls of pretty Shropshire town Ludlow, apparently due to Climate Change.  The Daily Telegraph followed up with a similar article today.

It’s an interesting issue, so we’ve explored it a little further for you with the help of Dr Peter Stott, the Head of Climate Monitoring and Attribution here at the Met Office:

‘From the perspective of a climate scientist working in the field of seeking to understand how manmade climate change is affecting our weather patterns, that seems a bit of a stretch.

What may be happening is that the droughts and floods of the last two years have contributed to destabilising the wall. But more work needs to be done to understand how climate change is affecting rainfall in the UK.

Robust evidence from satellites shows that the amount of atmospheric moisture over the oceans has increased by about 4% since the 1970s as the atmosphere has warmed due to the increased concentrations of manmade greenhouse gases. As a result there is now more moisture fuelling heavy rainfall events and the incidence of very heavy rainfall events has increased around the world.

Whilst the UK had its wettest summer since 1912 last year, we have always seen a great deal of variability in UK rainfall, because our weather patterns are constantly changing. However, preliminary evidence suggests we are getting slightly more rain in total and it may be falling in more intense bursts. Also while climate change is expected to change global rainfall patterns with more rainfall in the high latitudes of the northern hemisphere and more droughts in some places including the Mediterranean region, the precise regional details are still hard to pin down, especially in a small region like the UK.

At the Met Office Hadley Centre we are carrying out research to better understand how manmade and natural influences on climate have changed the risk of weather extremes like floods and droughts. This should enable societies to better adapt to climate variability and change in future. And as the research matures maybe we’ll be able to shed some more light on whether the collapse of the ancient walls of Ludlow, parts of which have stood since 1233, can be attributed to man made climate change.’

Where’s the Proof the Earth is Warming?

New Analysis Suggests a Future Increase in Coral Bleaching Events

A new study led by scientists from NOAA takes the latest temperature projections by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) to predict future impacts on the world’s coral reefs.  It concludes that if carbon emissions stay on the current path, most of the world’s coral reefs (74 percent) are projected to experience coral bleaching conditions annually by 2045.

Corals are dependent on algae that live within them. The algae give corals their bright colours, and more importantly provide the coral with food.  During above average sea temperatures this algae can be expelled, and corals can eventually die.

Warmer temperatures in 1998 caused a reported 16 percent loss of the world’s coral reefs according to the Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network. Future effects could be far worse.

Click here for the full story.

New Study Investigates Link Between Global Warming and Permafrost Thaw

Scientists studying Siberian caves have found new evidence suggesting that a 1.5°C rise in global temperatures could trigger a substantial thaw of permafrost releasing many gigatonnes of greenhouse gases.

Permafrost – or permanently frozen soil – covers approximately 24% of land in the Northern Hemisphere and is extremely rich in organic carbon.  As the permafrost melts, decomposition of organic matter releases carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere.

According to The Daily Mail:  ‘In Siberia alone, the mighty thaw would liberate more than 1,000 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide and methane.  The extra levels of greenhouse gas are potentially enough to accelerate global warming.’

The Guardian sums things up neatly with these interactive charts.

A 0.8°C temperature rise doesn’t sound like a lot to me?

Obama’s Tough Decision on Keystone XL Pipeline

In his State of the Union address, President Obama pledged to make climate change a key priority for his second term.  Now he finds himself at the centre of a controversial debate about the Keystone XL oil pipeline.

If he approves the pipeline it will pump up to one million barrels a day of crude oil extracted from tar sands in Western Canada to US refineries as far south as Houston and the Gulf of Mexico.

Those in favour believe that it’s a key opportunity to reduce the United States’ dependence on oil from less stable nations and generate thousands of American jobs.

Critics argue against opening up a vast new source of carbon, and fear extensive environmental damage from leaks and the extraction process itself.  Over 35,000 demonstrated around the White House on Sunday.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/17/us-usa-climate-keystone-protest-idUSBRE91G0GZ20130217
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Are our summers getting wetter?

Check out this weeks question from Ollie Hannaford, an up-and-coming singer songwriter living in Ivybridge, Devon.

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